Ghana’s political history is deeply tied to its regional voting patterns, with strongholds like the Volta and Ashanti regions playing significant roles in securing victories for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP), respectively.
Since 1992, these regions have consistently delivered substantial support, with the NDC and NPP achieving average votes of 80% and 73% in the Volta and Ashanti regions. These patterns are largely shaped by deep-rooted party loyalty and affiliations.
However, not all regions demonstrate such allegiance. Swing regions have emerged as pivotal areas and capable of influencing outcomes of elections. With the 2024 general elections in less than 24-hours, Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions stand out as critical battlegrounds, with their unpredictable voter dynamics set to play a decisive role.
Greater Accra
The Greater Accra Region, home to some 5.456 million people, is Ghana’s most populous and diverse region. As the economic hub and political nucleus of the country, it houses the capital and reflects the nation’s ethnic and social diversity. These characteristics make it a reliable barometer of national election outcomes, earning its reputation as a decider.
Since 1996, voting patterns in the Greater Accra have closely aligned with presidential election results. In that year, Jerry Rawlings of the NDC secured 54% of the votes in the region, defeating John Kufuor of the NPP, and ultimately won the presidency. Kufuor reversed this trend in 2000, capturing 53.1% of the votes and maintaining his lead in 2004 with 51.7%, securing back-to-back presidential victories.
In 2008, John Atta Mills reclaimed the region for the NDC with 52.1%, mirroring his national win. John Mahama continued this trend in 2012, securing 52.3% of Greater Accra’s votes to claim the presidency. However, in 2016, Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP captured the region with 52.4%, aligning with his nationwide success. A significant shift occurred in 2020 when John Dramani Mahama narrowly won the region with 51.04% of the votes, despite losing the presidential race overall. This departure from historical patterns highlights the evolving voter dynamics in the region.
With voter registration in Greater Accra increasing by nearly 10% since 2020, the region’s influence in the upcoming elections is expected to be substantial. Whether the NDC can build on Mahama’s improved performance or the NPP regains its dominance will be a focal point of the 2024 contest.
Central Region
The Central Region, with a population of over 2.86 million offers a diverse electoral landscape. It combines urban centers like Cape Coast with rural fishing communities, creating a complex mix of voter priorities. While traditionally an NDC stronghold under Rawlings and Mills, the region has increasingly demonstrated electoral volatility.
In 2004, the NPP made significant gains under Kufuor, securing 53% of the votes. Mills reclaimed the region for the NDC in 2008, but the pendulum swung back to the NPP in 2016, with Akufo-Addo winning 52%. In 2020, the NPP narrowly retained its lead, underscoring the region’s growing unpredictability. Both parties continue to prioritize the region, often selecting running mates or flagbearers from the Central region to strengthen their appeal to its diverse electorate.
Western Region
The Western Region, rich in resources such as gold, oil, and agriculture, is a significant contributor to Ghana’s economy. With a population of over 2.061 million, its voting trends often reflect national priorities, particularly regarding development and resource distribution. Historically leaning towards the NDC during the Rawlings era, the region’s loyalty shifted in 2004 when the NPP gained grounds through industrialization-focused policies.
The region’s allegiance fluctuated again in 2012, when Mahama won, only for the NPP to reclaim dominance in 2016 and 2020 by emphasizing equitable resource sharing. With voters prioritizing development and tangible results over party loyalty, the Western Region remains a critical battleground for the 2024 elections.
Key issues and the stakes for 2024
Collectively, Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions account for more than 35% of Ghana’s electorate. These regions not only shape electoral outcomes but also reflect the nation’s core challenges, including youth unemployment, inflation, and infrastructure development.
Youth unemployment is particularly significant in urban and semi-urban areas, while inflation of about 23% continues to dominate voter concerns. Additionally, the demand for infrastructure development remains pressing, with these regions seeking a balance between urban expansion and rural connectivity.
In the high-stakes 2024 elections, the focus will firmly remain on these dynamic regions, where the nation’s future will be determined.
By: Maame Efua Kwaduah
