The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed concerns about the state of the global economy, describing it as “limping along” as it grapples with a myriad of challenges.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro zone while highlighting the uneven nature of the global recovery despite the strength of the U.S. economy.
Here are the key takeaways from the IMF’s report:
- Global Growth Outlook: The IMF has revised its global real GDP growth forecast for 2024 down to 2.9% from the previous estimate of 3.0%. While global output grew by 3.5% in 2022, the IMF cautioned that the recovery remained fragile.
- Diverging Growth Trends: According to IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the global economy is recovering from the impact of COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the energy crisis of the previous year. However, divergent growth trends have led to “mediocre” medium-term prospects.
- Concerns and Risks: The IMF’s concerns include China’s property crisis, volatile commodity prices, geopolitical fragmentation, and a resurgence in inflation. Additionally, the recent Israel-Palestinian conflict has added a fresh layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook.
- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: The IMF is closely monitoring rising oil prices, which have increased by approximately 4% in recent days. A 10% increase in oil prices could dampen global output by about 0.2% the following year and boost global inflation by around 0.4%, according to Gourinchas.
- Medium-Term Outlook: The IMF paints a “darker” picture for emerging economies, projecting global growth of just 3.1% even in 2028. Factors contributing to this include uncertainty, geo-economic fragmentation, low productivity growth, and demographic challenges.
- Inflation Concerns: While inflation has declined globally due to falling energy prices, it remains uncomfortably high. The IMF anticipates that inflation will decrease to an annual average of 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024. Central banks are cautioned against premature easing.
- Global Investment: The IMF notes that investment levels are lower than pre-pandemic levels, with businesses showing caution due to higher interest rates, stricter lending conditions, and reduced fiscal support.
- U.S. Outperformance: The United States is the only major economy outperforming pre-pandemic forecasts, with the IMF raising its growth forecast for 2023 to 2.1%. This is attributed to stronger business investment and growing consumption.
- Challenges in China and Euro Zone: China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2024 due to a property crisis and weak external demand. The IMF emphasizes the need for China to take “forceful action” to address the real estate sector’s challenges. In the euro zone, growth forecasts have been cut to 0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.
- Other Highlights: The UK’s growth forecast for 2023 has been raised to 0.5% but cut to 0.6% for 2024 due to high energy prices. Japan is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2023, driven by pent-up demand, tourism, monetary policy, and auto exports.
The IMF’s latest report emphasizes the need for prudent economic policies and actions to address these issues and foster a more robust and inclusive recovery.
