A recent poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics shows John Dramani Mahama, the opposition leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), leading the presidential race with 51.1% of committed voters, while Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) trails behind with 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako secured 4.1% and 6.2% of the votes, respectively.
Additionally, floating voters and those who declined to disclose their affiliations make up 38% and 39% of those who say they will not vote. A concerning trend for Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s campaign, particularly a nearly 4% decline in support among Muslim voters between July and October 2024. This demographic has been crucial to his campaign. Additionally, the poll highlights shifts among voters who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. While 70% remain loyal to Bawumia, 19% have switched to John Dramani Mahama, with 5% each moving to Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako.
Regional shifts are significant, with 20% of 2020 NPP voters in Greater Accra and 37% in the Central Region now supporting Mahama. In terms of regional dominance, Mahama leads in 12 regions: Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta. Bawumia leads in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East.
Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyerematen are gaining traction, especially in Eastern and Ashanti regions, eroding Bawumia’s dominance. In the Ashanti region, where NPP aims for 85% of the vote, Bawumia stands at 66%, with Mahama at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyerematen at 4%.