Two reputable UK-based firms, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Fitch Solutions have foreseen a transfer of power in the upcoming 2024 Ghanaian presidential elections. The former President, John Mahama, is anticipated to secure victory, according to both analyses.
The EIU report highlights the likelihood of a shift from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC). Factors contributing to this potential change include declining living standards, limited job opportunities, and subpar public services.
The EIU identifies Ghana as one of several African countries set to hold significant elections in 2024, with potential challenges for incumbent regimes across the continent.
Fitch Solutions, on the other hand, emphasizes that the NPP is unlikely to retain power, predicting success for John Mahama in crucial swing regions.
A detailed analysis by the UK-based firm reveals that Mahama is expected to secure nearly 60% of the votes in the five northern regions, compared to Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s slightly above 30%. In swing regions, such as Greater Accra and Central, Mahama is anticipated to garner around 47% of the votes, while Bawumia is projected to receive nearly 30%. The Akan regions, including Ashanti and Eastern, also show Mahama leading with approximately 34%, surpassing Bawumia’s 33%.
Mike Kruninger, a Senior Analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at Fitch Solutions, expressed confidence in the NDC’s position, stating, “I think at this point we believe that the opposition party NDC is best placed to win the election.” Kruninger points to economic concerns as a pivotal factor for voters, potentially putting the ruling NPP at a disadvantage due to the recent economic downturn under their leadership. Recent polls indicate Mahama’s lead not only in traditional NDC-favoring areas but also in Akan regions that historically lean towards the NPP.
Summing up the analysis, Kruninger concluded, “So for now, it’s likely the NDC will manage to secure a majority in the December 2024 elections,” setting the stage for a highly anticipated and closely watched electoral contest in Ghana.