Super Bowl 2021 odds, picks: Chiefs have good value to repeat, but Cowboys make for intriguing long shot pick
The Kansas City Chiefs ran through the NFL gauntlet to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2020, defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Miami, 31-20, to win Super Bowl LIV. This time last year, the Westgate SuperBook had the Chiefs sitting at 6/1 odds to win Super Bowl LIV, which actually made them the favorite even after losing to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game.
Fast forward a year later, and the Chiefs are again the favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2021, but they are tied with two other teams at 7/1. The 49ers, who just lost Super Bowl LIV, are a favorite to make it back to the big game and the Baltimore Ravens are the other team Vegas is high on to win it all.
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The fact that those three teams are the favorites shouldn’t surprise anyone, but how about the teams that don’t have that great of odds? Is there a team you should jump on right now that might have enough to surprise the NFL world in 2021? The 2021 Super Bowl will be on CBS and we can’t wait.
I have the Chiefs as a team you should grab with those 7/1 odds, but there are four other teams I’m interested in as well. (These odds come courtesy of William Hill).
The Chiefs used an epic fourth-quarter comeback to win their first Super Bowl title in 50 years, and there’s a lot to go over. Will Brinson and the Pick Six Podcast Superfriends break down everything about Chiefs-49ers in Super Bowl LIV; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
5. Buffalo Bills
You might think this is a joke considering the epic choke job they had against the Houston Texans in the AFC wild-card round, but for many NFL fans, that was the first Bills game they had watched all year. This team won nine of its first 11 games this season and had the No. 3 defense in the league when it came to yards allowed per game. Yes, the Bills had an easier schedule this year, but that doesn’t take away how I’m feeling about this team.
Josh Allen threw for 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season, and clearly took a big step forward. Analysts wanted to list him as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league last offseason when the offense at times was just him against the world. They were wrong. Allen also rushed for 510 yards and nine touchdowns this year. Believe it or not, Allen rushed for two more touchdowns than NFL MVP Lamar Jackson did. He also didn’t have the most incredible offensive weapons. John Brown had a decent year, recording 1,060 yards and six touchdowns, but other than that, Allen really didn’t have much help at wide receiver. Frank Gore wasn’t incredibly effective as a rusher and rookie running back Devin Singletary missed time with injury. With some key additions in the offseason, I think this Bills team is going to be better in 2020.
Also, when it comes to the division, the Bills could clinch the AFC East next season. Who knows what’s going to happen with Tom Brady and the Patriots, the New York Jets appear to be a mess and the Miami Dolphins are still in rebuild mode. I think this Bills team is going to make the playoffs again this year. With those 30/1 odds … I’m taking a flier on them.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
This one doesn’t need much explaining. I’m looking for value, but it’s hard to ignore the Chiefs at 7/1. They really didn’t have an incredible year when you look back at this season. The Chiefs won just six of their first 10 games and Patrick Mahomes missed time due to injury. They were able to rebound, however, to win nine straight games, including the Super Bowl. In all three postseason games, they trailed by double digits. That’s enough to prove that they haven’t played up to their potential yet. Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the league, Tyreek Hill is the fastest wideout in the league and the defense was much improved compared to last year. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs repeat in 2021. As Kelce told my colleague Will Brinson on Sunday night, “The dynasty is just starting.
3. New Orleans Saints
I’ll give you that the quarterback situation is a little sketchy right now. Let’s pretend that Drew Brees returns for a farewell tour, though. This team was a Super Bowl favorite for much of the year in 2019. Brees and Michael Thomas were breaking records, the defense was improved and Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill even found success when called upon. After being ousted from the playoffs due to a brutal no-call last year, then losing to the Minnesota Vikings in the Superdome this season and with Brees possibly announcing this will be his last season — the Saints have to be more motivated than they ever have been to win it all.
If Alvin Kamara can avoid putting up career-low numbers again and if the Saints can remain healthy and also pick up some pieces in the offseason, they should be right there among the last teams standing in 2021.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers did benefit from an easy schedule and looked like a bad team at times in 2019, but they still went 13-3! They did that with a first-year head coach and an injury-riddled receiving corps as well! You have to imagine that this team will be better next year. The Packers’ success came from the defensive side of the ball this season, which was very surprising. It was a coming-out party for Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith — two free-agent pickups who combined for 25.5 sacks this year. While many are probably expecting more regression on the offensive side of the ball since Aaron Rodgers is now 36, don’t you think that’s something prospective offensive genius Matt LaFleur can work around? He’s got Aaron Jones as well, who put up career numbers both on the ground and in the receiving game in 2019. Sure, the Packers need to add a few more pieces, but that’s what the offseason is for. Overall, I think the Rodgers-LaFleur connection is going to be better and the Packers will again win the NFC North.
1. Dallas Cowboys
I don’t want to get the incredible fan base that supports “America’s Team” too excited, but the Cowboys are an intriguing selection at 20/1. When it comes to teams that did not make the postseason this year, the Cowboys have the best odds out of any other franchise. I believe a lot of that has to do with the hiring of Mike McCarthy, and Vegas does too, apparently. Everyone agrees that a team with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper (hopefully) should make a deep run in the postseason. They also have some great pieces on defense like DeMarcus Lawrence, Leighton Vander Esch, and Jaylon Smith. I don’t think McCarthy is one of the best coaches in the NFL, but he’s someone who has found success in this league and has been to and won the big game. If you give someone with experience this talented of a roster, it should bode well for the future. The Cowboys are not my favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2021, per se, but I will definitely put some money on them at 20/1 and hope for the best.
